Thanksgiving

Its’s that time of year again, time to reflect on what we are thankful for. We are thankful for our warm and cozy turkey, cranberry, and interlinked social media fueled way of life and the electricity that powers it. But there is a backstory to those of us who follow history, rhythms of boom and bust, cycles that emerge that seem to be the end, but then somehow, we are miraculously brought back from the brink of cataclysmic disaster and redirected.

Such was the situation during the heyday of the Cold War, where the emphasis was not on nuclear energy but mutually assured destruction. The Titan II was the largest ICBM ever deployed by the U.S. at that time. Standing at 103 feet tall and weighing 330,000 pounds, the missile had a range of up to 9,300 miles. The Titan II held an incredible nine megatons of explosive power. These warheads were ‘city killers’ with the potential to vaporize a target across a 150-mile diameter impact zone.

It seems that Doctor Strangelove was in fact a documentary. From June 1963 through June 1987, we all lived under the threat of nuclear annihilation. The program was designed to deter our enemies.

Was the intent to potentially use these weapons? Quite clearly it was. These weapons systems required extensive maintenance and launch practice with each changing shift. A handful of people in each base deployment could have ended most life on this planet within a couple of minutes if ordered to do so from on high. After launch, up to 150 lucky citizens could be crammed into a spent silo underground system for up to six months for the purpose of ‘rebuilding the population.’ Reproductive for some but sobering thoughts for those left behind…

Thankfully, the end of western civilization was postponed at least. The world began to hate the bomb and start worrying about nuclear power. But that too went bust circa 2017.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the last nuclear energy project in the US came in at $16B over budget and seven years behind schedule. The Trump administration is betting $80B on a renewed nuclear industry and focused Westinghouse/Cameco AP1000 reactor backstopped by the Japanese re-investment program of $500B in US infrastructure. Executives say the initiative will help the US win the race for AI as well as achieve President Trump’s goal of ‘energy dominance.’ The reactors produce about 1,100 megawatts of electricity each. The plan, which is still being formulated, is looking like the build out of eight reactors to be deployed across four sites. From a scale perspective, each reactor can power a medium sized community or one AI data center. Who will be the lucky ones?

Grant Isaac, Cameco’s President, and Chief Operating Officer, said there is no technology, license, fuel supply or regulatory risks. His big assumption is that only project risk remains and that by ‘Standardizing, Sequencing, and Simplifying’ the risks can be mitigated.

Is this the start of a new golden age of nuclear power or are we once again headed towards a precipice of catastrophe? Perhaps it is too soon to tell. 

Lessons that we did learn. Never bet against the USA. The Titan program was complex even as it evolved from Atlas, Titan I and Titan II. In fact, the further in time you went the more riskier and complex it became. Accidents happened, false alarms occurred, and people died but, in the end, the USA won the Cold War.

In the same way, regardless of what anyone hopes, nuclear power is inherently fraught with a high degree of risk. Done correctly, it also drives outsized rewards. The first hurdle will be to re-assemble and equip construction teams with methods and best practices that create more predictable outcomes. And of course, even as the complexity of the reactors, the materials, and their software defined management frameworks will explode higher, even more work will need to be done to improve safety and operational readiness.

The future is bright. It will be brighter with more electricity. We must ENSURE for our children and future generations that corners are not cut as we pursue the greatest civilization on Earth.

And with that, enjoy the Holiday. Some like Turkey, others prefer roast beef. That’s America folks. 

Happy Thanksgiving!