Catch the conscience of the king
Welcome to the Ides of March, where all the world’s a stage, and it is winner take all or not on the geopolitical scene. So how are the people getting along in this great nation we call the USA? The operative word is ‘frustration’ with the inflated cost of living, ‘oblivion’ for some, and ‘confusion’ among others about why we should be involved in yet another middle eastern conflict.
Yesterday I was asked to get fuel for the car, which is good because I normally would not be so informed about the cost. As I pulled into the pump area, there was a line of several cars deep on each aisle. There was even a security officer directing traffic. The woman in front of me, with her mid-size SUV which also happened to contain her two small children, was finishing putting her gas cap on. She inadvertently left her receipt at the pump for seven dollars and seventy cents. That is right: $7.70. If I would have been less distracted by the refueling spectacle, I would have paid it for her. As we shall see, this is but one of the many costs of war.
Like the misfire of a movie – Zeitgeist, that nobody should ever waste a minute watching – our world is a little bit fact with a lot of fiction baked in. We have seen some analysts suggesting this week that the increase in fuel prices is good. That people are changing entrenched behaviors and driving less. Our view is that this logic is deceptive, misguided and incorrect. Pain at the pump is definitely a sacrifice and a cost and one that hits the poor the hardest.
People are driving as much as ever, trying to work, take their kids to school, help care for their parents, and keep living their lives as they journey through this thing ‘we call life’ – thank you Prince, you left us too soon. High fuel prices do not stop people from doing these things, it simply aggravates them even more than traffic on the PCH on a sunny day in Southern California. Word to the politically astute – people notice when they must pay and especially when they pay with their lives. It helps to tell people what they are getting for their money.
Who else gets it wrong. Big Tech backs Anthropic in fight against Trump administration. According to the BBC,
Since Monday, Google, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft have publicly supported Anthropic’s legal action to overturn Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s unprecedented decision to label it a “supply chain risk”. In legal filings, the tech giants expressed concerns about the government’s retaliation against Anthropic after it refused to let its tools be used in mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. The government’s behaviour could cause “broad negative ramifications for the entire technology sector”, Microsoft warned.
There is an arrogance across Big Tech that is difficult to reconcile with their obscene opportunities and outsized influence. Whether improvident to get the US involved in Iran or not, we will give the President and his people the benefit of the doubt that their information for military action is better than our information. The Iranian government has proven repeatedly that they are not to be trusted with explosive objects let alone nuclear tipped missiles. Thankfully, they do not have one and will not be getting ‘the bomb’ anytime soon; if they did, we are of the view that they would have probably used the ‘big Kahuna’ already and we would all be living with the Fallout – another deeply weird sci-fi / horror train wreck of a series on the do not recommend list. That said, if you are a supplier to the Department of War, expect that your shit is going to be used to fight wars and kill people. Don’t like it, don’t sign up as government supplier.
Which takes us back to money. War is expensive. Every American should understand what it costs to go to war. There are tangible costs felt immediately like the price of Diesel and Gasoline. There are fixed costs, the amount spent on ships, planes, tanks, computers and software and there are variable costs. For example, the amount spent transporting equipment and personnel across continents, munitions expended, and of course the costs of plumbers needed to unclog the toilettes on the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford. FACT SHEET: How much is the war in Iran costing taxpayers?
Digging in a little deeper, $59.39M is the consensus budget costs of the US presence in the middle east currently (war or no war that is what it costs for all those bases to maintain security across the region). The Pentagon reported last week that the war against Iran has already exceeded $11.3 billion in its first six days, averaging about $1.88 billion per day. That is about $1.82B more per day than normal operations. It might be clear now why Pete Hegseth is asking for an additional $200B for the military budget, approximately 20% more than last year. You can infer that the war will continue for three or more months at least at full spending strength.
What are you getting for your money? There are some benefits in this case. We hope we are getting less terrorism in the middle east, fewer threats of future terrorism in the west, and greater energy stability across the globe. Israel, UAE, Saudia Arabi, Iraq, Turkey, Qatar and the USA have serious Iran fatigue. Europe is in some kind of weird neutrality posture while they try to figure out a way to live with no money and no industry without Russian oil and gas. Good luck. In Asia, it is time for centrally controlled governments to get used to doing business in the real world – expect higher energy prices to create instability across these large population centers. Because we need to borrow more money for the war as well as service our pre-existing debt, you are also going to get more but moderate inflation in the USA, which will make life interesting for future Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Yes, war sucks for everyone big time, but sometimes you have to do it to improve the odds of a better life in the future.
What you will not be getting is democracy in Iran. Iran is the way it is because the people that live there put up with it and we dare say that some of them even like it the way that it is (those running the Iranian government). Once the most powerful empire on Earth, the place never had a democracy in its five thousand plus years of existence and will not be getting one anytime soon. Iran and Persians in general are a beautiful people, a proud people, and they obviously will not relinquish their sovereignty let alone their culture and language to anyone or power at least willingly. We should all know by now that subduing people against their will typically does not work out so well for those doing the oppressing.
You will not be getting much on the way of truth either – being the first casualty of war and all that. If you want to freak out on conspiracy theories for fun and prizes, according to Michael Cronin, Five Scientists in U.S. Missing or Dead with Alleged Links to Iran
Five scientists—experts in highly specialized and often sensitive fields—have either vanished or been found dead in recent months, with three confirmed fatalities casting a dark shadow over the scientific community. The incidents, spread across states including California, New Mexico, and others, have fueled speculation about whether a pattern exists or if coincidence is at play.
What to buy? Invest in America’s industrial supply chain this month, especially commodities. Sell some Big Tech and Big Oil. Let them eat cake. Buy Gold, Silver, Uranium, Copper, Magnesium, Tungsten, Germanium, etc., etc., etc. Also, as we discussed before, nuclear fusion is going to be a thing. Finally, remember the admittedly flawed but wise Bejamin Franklin who on multiple occasions said:
“There never was a good war or a bad peace.”
-Letter to Sir Joseph Banks, president of the Royal Society of London, July 1783. Also cited in a letter to Quincy, Sr., American merchant, planter and politician, September 1783.
We know the federal government is working on the peace part at least today – let us hope and pray it comes sooner than later.